Brazil’s 2026 Race Tightens as Flávio Bolsonaro Closes the Gap on Lula

2026-02-12 - 10:45

Key Points — A Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by just five points in a simulated runoff — 43% to 38% — the narrowest margin since tracking began, down from 16 points in August 2025. — São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas was dropped from the poll for the first time after endorsing